Turkish inflation rises, raising expectations of further rate hikes
Turkey’s inflation rate rose to 15.61% in February, marking the fifth month of consecutive increases and raising expectations for the central bank to introduce further rate hikes.
ISTANBUL — Turkey’s annual inflation rate rose for the fifth month in a row, growing to 15.61% in February up from 14.97% in January, according to official data published by the Turkish Statistical Institute on March 3.
The consumer price index increased above forecasts by Bloomberg and Reuters, which put median inflation estimates at about 15.4% prior to the announcement. The March 3 data also showed Turkey’s monthly inflation stood at 0.91%, driven primarily by rising prices in energy, household goods and food products as well as the continued economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The uptick in February inflation seems to reflect that demand conditions remained strong enough in early 2021 for producers to be able to pass their rising costs such as higher energy prices onto consumer prices,” Ugras Ulku, head of European emerging markets research at the Institute of International Finance, told Al-Monitor.
Accelerating inflation trends have raised expectations that Turkey’s central bank will further hike interest rates at its March 18 policy rate meeting. Since his appointment in November, central bank Governor Naci Agbal increased a key policy rate 675 basis points to 17%, boosting the Turkish lira and restoring the bank’s credibility among investors, but after the latest figures analysts believe additional monetary tightening measures will be needed to curb inflationary pressures.
