The tweet sent yesterday by popular ultra-Orthodox commentator Israel Cohen triggered an animated, passionate twitter discussion among political commentators. In the tweet, Cohen discussed the findings of an internet poll that examined the voting patterns in the ultra-Orthodox city of Beit Shemesh, which clearly shows a decline in the power of the Yahadut HaTorah party (the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox party).

Still, the big drama that may be hiding behind the poll relates to a new, rising power: the Religious Zionist party headed by former transportation minister Bezalel Smotrich. The significance of all that is that veteran faction Yahadut HaTorah is losing young voters to a radical right-wing religious party.

Cohen made public something that was obvious to all those who spent time in the ultra-Orthodox cities during the COVID-19 period. Youths in the midst of integration in the general society who had acquired an education and started to take part in the work market discovered a new, unpleasant reality. Not only does the general (secular) public now hate the ultra-Orthodox leadership, blaming it for the rise of the pandemic, but these young people also discovered that the separatism of their leaders caused them to be hated as well. The general public makes no difference between the ultra-Orthodox leadership and the ultra-Orthodox electorate.

Thus, the fact that Israel is conducting elections under COVID-19 conditions may weaken Yahadut HaTorah. Recent polls have demonstrated a decrease of about one mandate for the party (they have 7 Knesset seats currently), and its leadership has only started to understand how much damage has been done. It is not clear if they will be able to improve things. On the other hand, the second ultra-Orthodox party, Shas (associated with the Sephardim), has nothing to worry about: The heads of the party were careful to toe the line and follow government orders. They did nothing to isolate their young voters.