How the pandemic, plummeting oil prices could reshape Middle East
COVID-19 will weaken fragile states, raising risk of failure but creating openings for diplomacy.
The COVID-19 virus will hit hardest those states in fragile or conflict situations — Libya, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza — which, even prior to the pandemic, faced the risk of becoming chronically failing or even failed states.
A region facing endemic fragility and conflict
A World Bank report released in February noted that people living in proximity to conflict has doubled since 2007, and estimates that by 2030 nearly two-thirds of the world’s extreme poor will be living in fragile and conflict situations (FCS).
No surprise that a sizable share of those FCS is in the Middle East — Libya, Syria and Yemen (all defined as FCS high intensity conflict), Iraq (medium intensity conflict), and Lebanon and West Bank/Gaza (high institutional and social fragility).
