Turkey’s Libya strategy seems to have produced many side effects with the situation on the ground rapidly escalating.

Turkey’s hard power tactics on Libya perhaps paved the way for the Berlin summit by provoking the international community to take action against Turkey’s unilateral moves, but the final communique that the foreign powers agreed on during the conference are conflicting with Ankara’s interests and military plans. The provision that envisages sanctions on parties that break the United Nations arms embargo is effectively blocking Turkey’s military venture. The communique also calls for a formation of a unity government that is recognized by the war-torn country’s Tobruk-based parliament that strongly opposes the military cooperation and maritime boundary agreements that Turkey signed with the Fayez al-Sarraj-led Government of National Accord (GNA).

Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have boosted their support for Libyan National Army (LNA) leader Khalifa Hifter who announced Jan. 18 that he would block oil exports from the country's main ports in retaliation for Turkey’s actions. The disruption in the oil production can have “devastating consequences first and foremost for the Libyan people,” warned the United Nations Libya mission.

Ankara’s road map with Libya derailed when several deterrent factors came into play preventing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to realize his plans to dispatch military troops to the war-torn country despite the parliamentary approval he obtained Jan. 2.