Iran’s next moves depend on US
Iran is likely to choose a measured response to US actions, as long as Washington does the same in return, while at the same time trying to increase US costs of staying in the region.
A strong wave of anti-Americanism swept Iran following the US assassination Jan. 3 of Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Although the fever pitch of that sentiment isn’t likely to last, its consequences will be reflected in Iran's domestic and foreign policy.
The first repercussion is a change in Iran’s political alignment: Conservatives and hard-liners are growing stronger, while Reformists and moderates are losing ground.
Even Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who often favors diplomacy over a hard approach, insisted Jan. 7 that Iran’s retaliation must cause the United States pain. Outside Iran, many officials and media in the United States, Europe and the Middle East have commented that Iran is ready for a tough confrontation.
But growing support for Iranian special forces and the conservatives’ position doesn’t necessarily mean abandoning diplomacy and preparing for war. Political processes in Iran have their own complexities. Many analysts and commentators ignore that Iran pays attention to cost-benefit calculations in a rational manner while keeping up its guard against the United States.
