The offensive launched Dec. 19 by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — supported by Russia and Shiite militias — has made unprecedented gains against Turkish-backed rebel forces in Idlib province. Assad's combined forces left the general area of Umm Jalal and Khuraybah, roughly 50 kilometers (31 miles) southeast of the center of Idlib city, and in only four days captured about 40 villages.

This operation is increasingly sidelining Turkey from the Idlib game. The forces encircled Turkey’s observation point at Surman on Dec. 23. (The Morek observation post was surrounded during another operation almost three months ago.) Two more posts are on the line: A UN humanitarian office reported Dec. 26 that Maaret al-Numan city and the surrounding area in southern Idlib was "almost empty" as residents had fled, and Turkey’s outpost at Tal Tukan village was also threatened. Controlling Maaret al-Numan means controlling southern Idlib and the critical M-5 highway to Aleppo.

Assad’s forces had carried out their “Dawn of Idlib” campaign from May 6 to Aug. 31. That operation concluded with the capture of the critical Morek-Latamine line in the region's south, yet with no clear military victory. Operational factors that stalled this operation could have been disciplinary problems, wrong tactical moves, Russia-Iran conflict and coordination setbacks, lack of fire support and limited human resources.

In late August, clashes in the region did not stop immediately. For some time there was calm in the region, except for sparse airstrikes that intimidated civilians. However, this pause was for the Sochi meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin.