The offensive launched Dec. 19 by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — supported by Russia and Shiite militias — has made unprecedented gains against Turkish-backed rebel forces in Idlib province. Assad's combined forces left the general area of Umm Jalal and Khuraybah, roughly 50 kilometers (31 miles) southeast of the center of Idlib city, and in only four days captured about 40 villages.
This operation is increasingly sidelining Turkey from the Idlib game. The forces encircled Turkey’s observation point at Surman on Dec. 23. (The Morek observation post was surrounded during another operation almost three months ago.) Two more posts are on the line: A UN humanitarian office reported Dec. 26 that Maaret al-Numan city and the surrounding area in southern Idlib was "almost empty" as residents had fled, and Turkey’s outpost at Tal Tukan village was also threatened. Controlling Maaret al-Numan means controlling southern Idlib and the critical M-5 highway to Aleppo.
