A series of momentous developments in Syria’s rebel-held province of Idlib in recent weeks have raised the specter of the grave scenario that awaits Turkey in the Syrian crisis. It all started with Turkey’s failure to shield rebel forces in Idlib, as they had expected. The regime offensive that led to the fall of Khan Sheikhoun last month left the Turkish military observation post at Morek besieged. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rushed to Moscow, only to return empty-handed, as hundreds of Syrians stormed Turkey’s borders, furious over its inaction.
The risk of a new refugee wave aside, the situation now threatens to render Turkey both a hostage to the crisis and a target of armed groups.