Russian President Vladimir Putin will announce his plan for Gulf security next month. It’s unclear how the Gulf countries will respond to his initiative, and whether the Trump administration and the EU will have any time for it. The proposal’s ambition is stark, and it seems at this point like a hard, if not impossible sell to many of the stakeholders — especially the United States. In trying to make the pitch, Putin may have an eye on American politics, hoping that US President Donald Trump might welcome a diplomatic track, even a long shot, which helps keeps the Gulf quiet during his 2020 reelection campaign.

Lavrov: Russian initiative a ‘very, very promising thing’

In the midst of the escalating confrontation between the United States and Iran, Trump tweeted on June 24, "We don't even need to be there [in the Gulf]” because the United States was no longer dependent on Persian Gulf oil, asking, “Why are we protecting the shipping lanes for other countries (over many years) for zero compensation … All of these countries should be protecting their own ships on what has always been a dangerous journey."

This statement came as something of a stunner for the US partners in the Gulf, including and especially Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain, which count on their security ties with the United States and back the administration’s maximum pressure campaign on Iran.