As news broke that US President Donald Trump stopped a military strike on three Iranian targets June 21, the region came face to face with the prospect of war. Now, with the United States threatening even more sanctions and Iran breaching the 2015 nuclear deal in response to Washington’s withdrawal, there is very little consensus over how to deal with this escalation among the Gulf states.

Although Trump has also stated that “there is absolutely no time pressure on resolving the dispute,” the Europeans have doubled down on their own efforts to activate their workaround to avoid US sanctions in trade with Iran, the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX). Meanwhile, the Arabian Gulf countries, where the brunt of any escalation will be strongest, are in disagreement on how to deal with Trump’s hesitant policy on Iran. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have supported Washington’s “maximum pressure" campaign, while Oman, Kuwait and Qatar have a different approach to the conflict.

On May 19, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir strongly criticized Doha and called on Qatar to “choose sides,” and the Saudis seemed uneasy about the Omani statement after the attacks on Abha airport by the Houthis that stopped short of condemning the attacks. On the other hand, the Qataris and Omanis are actively working on de-escalating the situation. On May 20, Omani Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi traveled to Tehran to meet with his counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif. Before that, news reports by many sources — including the Qatari-owned Al Jazeera network — also placed Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Tehran around mid-May, both visits were later attributed to mediation efforts. In addition, the Qatari foreign minister voiced concern over the Saudi and Emirati policy of actively supporting escalation in the region in two consecutive interviews on Al-Arabi and Al Jazeera on June 2. Furthermore, Qatar has officially submitted reservations over the final communique of the urgent summit called for by the Saudis to show solidarity after the attacks by the Houthis on Saudi soil and the Fujairah tanker attacks.

While the Trump administration is seemingly hesitant about its hard-line policy on Iran, speaking about military action at times and offering a no strings attached olive branch at others, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain have made countless statements in support of harder action on Iran and have used inflammatory language and even resorted to organizing a three summit gathering in Mecca during Ramadan to rally Gulf Cooperation Council, Arab and Islamic countries against Iran. On the other hand, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar have voiced concern over stability and security in the region throughout the escalation and are actively participating in mediation efforts between the United States and Iran. This divide, however, is not solely a result of recent developments, rather it is structural in the dynamics of intra-Gulf and Iranian-Gulf relations.