The results of Turkey's March 31 local elections will be debated for a long time to come. The main issues of debate will be the preferences of voters, whether the recently installed executive presidential system is working, and how strong is the public's confidence in Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Cabinet. This confidence is not only about domestic politics, but foreign policy affairs as well.

Results from the vote show that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) sustained substantial losses, receiving about 2 million fewer votes compared to the June 2018 elections, with most of the losses occurring in metropolitan areas, led by Ankara and Istanbul.

Another striking result was a major shift of support from the AKP base to the ultranationalist base, and how Erdogan’s use of “national survival” rhetoric more so benefited the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). The more Erdogan tried to mobilize his power base with his slogan that the elections were a “matter of national survival,” the more votes the MHP received. In a nutshell, the results show how support for the AKP-led People’s Alliance eroded while the junior partner in the alliance, the MHP, accrued gains.

Also of note was how the state organs led by Supreme Election Council (YSK) resisted the AKP’s demands and priorities, as seen from the struggle in Istanbul.