Turkey’s complex balancing act between Russia and Ukraine
President Erdogan’s desire to mediate between Moscow and Kiev is confounded by Turkish policies in Crimea and Russian separatism in eastern Ukraine.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s efforts to convince Russia and Ukraine to resolve their differences diplomatically — following their recent naval skirmish in the Kerch Strait — has given pro-government circles in Turkey the impression that Ankara is poised to play a mediation role in this crisis.
Erdogan also encouraged this impression prior to departing for the G-20 summit in Argentina on Nov. 29. He told reporters that he had discussed the matter with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, and added that they would explore this possibility further with Putin during the G-20 summit.
If this mediation were to come about it would enhance Erdogan’s image at a time when the race for crucial local elections in March is heating up. Nothing would contribute to his image more than a major international success in bringing Russia and Ukraine together.
Erdogan’s generally negative international image improved relatively in September after he mediated a cease-fire settlement for Syria’s Idlib province, and prevented an attack on the region by Russian and Syrian forces. UN officials lauded Erdogan for preventing a bloodbath.
