In Iran, the Reformists are becoming increasingly suspicious about the possibility that the centrist Hassan Rouhani administration will officially form a coalition with moderate conservative parliament Speaker Ali Larijani. This comes as many are saying that Rouhani’s second-term Cabinet has been filled with figures from the president’s inner circle instead of Reformists; at the same time, Reformist First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri’s role appears to have diminished.

Since taking office in 2013, Rouhani has enjoyed close ties with Larijani, who has been speaker since 2008. During this time, Larijani has come to Rouhani’s rescue at several critical junctures, including during the nuclear negotiations, in parliament’s ratification of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and in confidence votes for ministers in Rouhani’s first and second Cabinets. In contrast with the tense relations he had with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Larijani has enjoyed close relations with Rouhani and approved many measures taken by the executive branch. This interaction, of course, has not been one-sided, as Rouhani has responded to Larijani’s support in kind.

One example of this mutual support is the case of conservative Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, who has served as interior minister in both of Rouhani’s Cabinets despite strong Reformist opposition. Indeed, virtually all political observers in Iran believe Larijani is the reason why Rahmani Fazli holds his post. Now the Reform movement is becoming more concerned about Rouhani and Larijani’s close ties, especially in light of growing speculation about the speaker’s potential candidacy in the 2021 presidential elections. At the same time, Jahangiri’s notable performance in the 2017 presidential debates, which drew him favorable public opinion, has also prompted the Reformist front to view him as a potential contender.

As such, in the eyes of many Reformists, the Rouhani administration is now facing a critical crossroads: that of choosing between its Reformist vice president or its moderate conservative ally in parliament. This juncture will become even more challenging for Rouhani as his term advances. At present, the Reformists believe the balance is tipped more in favor of Larijani than Jahangiri. Indeed, ever since the president introduced his second Cabinet, Jahangiri has been pushed to the sidelines. Even the task of creating a lineup for the government’s economic team, which was to be assigned to Jahangiri, was taken away, and instead Rouhani created the team himself by appointing individuals from his inner circle to key economic positions.