Ankara faces a major quandary now that al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has seized Syria’s Idlib area abutting Turkey’s Hatay province.

HTS captured more than 30 locations in the clashes of July 18-24, decimating Turkish-backed Ahrar al-Sham and its allies, who were forced to retreat from Idlib south to rural Hama. HTS gained control of areas with border crossings to Turkey. Only the Bab al-Hawa border crossing opposite Turkey’s Cilvegozu was handed over to a neutral civilian administration after the adversaries reached an agreement July 21.

What course will Turkey take now that the field situation at Idlib has shifted in al-Qaeda’s favor? What problems might Turkey have to deal with?

So as not to disrupt the humanitarian and military assistance coming through the Turkish border, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), the key force of the HTS coalition, had stayed away from the border crossings since Idlib was captured in March, although Bab al-Hawa and the unofficial crossing of Khirbet al-Jouz were the main sources of revenue for Ahrar al-Sham. Ahrar al-Sham lost control of Bab al-Hawa and Khirbet al-Jouz when clashes resumed after the July 21 cease-fire. HTS, aware of the vital importance of keeping the border crossings open, agreed to allow Bab al-Hawa to be managed by a neutral civilian administration.