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How the IDF is plotting Islamic State's next move

Israeli intelligence expects the Islamic State to relocate after it loses the battles over Mosul and Raqqa.
Militant Islamist fighters take part in a military parade along the streets of northern Raqqa province June 30, 2014. Militant Islamist fighters held a parade in Syria's northern Raqqa province to celebrate their declaration of an Islamic "caliphate" after the group captured territory in neighbouring Iraq, a monitoring service said. The Islamic State, an al Qaeda offshoot previously known as Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), posted pictures online on Sunday of people waving black flags from cars

The intelligence arm of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) disagrees with the assessment recently heard coming from the mouths of the Iraqi army’s top brass: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic State (IS), is currently in Mosul and is personally leading IS fighters in the desperate, defensive battle for the city.

“According to our appraisal, he is simply not there,” said Lt. Col. N. (name withheld), head of the Global Jihad Desk in the Analysis and Research Division of IDF Intelligence. “Regarding his exact location there are several appraisals, but we think that he is not in Mosul.”

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