Could the "no" votes win Turkey’s April 16 constitutional referendum on amendments expanding the country's presidential powers? Opinion polls by leading Turkish research firms suggest it's a possibility.

In a March 27 interview with Hurriyet Daily News Editor-in-Chief Barcin Yinanc, Konda polling company director Bekir Agirdir described the race as “neck and neck.” Agirdir said that while there are “some undecided even among the core loyalist constituency of the [Justice and Development Party] AKP," "there is no hesitation in the ‘no’ camp, where you have the voters of the [Republican People’s Party] CHP and [the Peoples’ Democratic Party] HDP.” Despite occasional setbacks, Konda remains one of Turkey’s most reliable polling firms.

Agirdir added that half of Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) voters plan on voting against the amendments. Another quarter of MHP voters remain undecided.

That outlook puts MHP Chairman Devlet Bahceli, who has formed an alliance of convenience with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling AKP, in a difficult bind. Bahceli is currently facing a serious backlash from his own ranks for supporting Erdogan. If the “no" votes have it, Bahceli could very well lose his chairmanship, and Erdogan a critical (if uneasy) partner.