What comes next for Turkey after Jarablus victory?
Turkey’s strategic goals and field preparations signal that it plans to stay in northern Syria for quite some time.
Everyone wonders how long Operation Euphrates Shield, launched Aug. 24, will continue.
What are the strategic goals of this operation? Can it expand to the al Rai-Azaz line in the west and, even more important, southeast toward al-Bab to interdict the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) and prevent them from advancing westward and defying Turkey’s oft-stated red lines?
An Aug. 25 headline in the pro-government daily Yeni Safak read, “This is just a beginning.” Sources in the Free Syrian Army (FSA) who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity described Euphrates Shield as a complex operation "with major goals.” In Ankara, the prevailing belief is that the operation is, above all, a diplomatic success of Turkey’s changing approach to Syria and the intensive shuttle diplomacy that was conducted. On the military front, Ankara sees the capture of Jarablus in 12 hours without casualties and avoiding a major clash with the Islamic State (IS) as a significant success. A security source in Ankara told Al-Monitor, “It is time to benefit from these successes. It would be a gross mistake to think of limiting the operation only to Jarablus, after preparing for it for a year.”
Sources in Ankara’s strategic corridors and in the field spoke with Al-Monitor about the envisaged duration of the operation and its dimensions. Ankara’s goals can roughly be divided into political and field objectives.
