Is Russia readying for the kill in Syria?

Russia may be preparing to back a renewed assault by Syrian government forces to retake Aleppo, and perhaps even Raqqa, from Jabhat al-Nusra and allied groups in the coming weeks.

Mohammad Ballout wrote, in Al-Monitor's partner publication As-Safir, “The Russians will put their Sukhoi fighter jets to the test and bet on direct ground offensives to weaken rather than defeat Syrian armed factions. It should be noted that isolating Jabhat al-Nusra from other armed factions, which is a difficult and complicated objective, would strike a painful blow to those factions since Jabhat al-Nusra’s military and ideological might form the backbone around which those factions unite.”

Officials in Moscow have made no secret of their intention to target Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria, as well as those groups that have sought to make tactical alliance with it, such as Ahrar al-Sham. Russia has offered a pause in its bombing campaign for groups such as Ahrar al-Sham to distance themselves from Jabhat al-Nusra, but it seems so far to no avail, as Ahrar al-Sham, in particular, has continued its collaboration with Jabhat al-Nusra. 

The United States has found itself conflicted between, on the one hand, its partnership with Russia, which has led to an unprecedented — if fragile — cessation of hostilities and renewed — if tentative — intra-Syrian talks, and on the other hand its regional partners, which are loath to rein in their proxies with President Bashar al-Assad still in power, even if those proxies run with Jabhat al-Nusra.