On Jan. 18, about a month before the 2016 legislative elections in Iran, Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot said, quoted by military sources on condition of anonymity, “Our eyes are fixed on election day in Iran. After that day, we will be able to attempt to understand what direction Iran is headed, what are the underlying currents in Iranian society and how these currents will influence what will be most dominant in the coming years: [Iranian] Reformists or Islamists.” Eizenkot characterized the situation with great precision: All the branches and arms of the Israeli intelligence have stretched themselves to the limit in their attempts to pinpoint, understand and analyze what will take place in Iran on Feb. 26, election day for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts.
It’s not as if anyone in Israel dared hope for a real political revolution. “No such scenario exists,” admits a high-placed Israeli security source, speaking to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “We can’t fool ourselves into thinking that one day the ayatollah regime will simply collapse. Even the harbingers of revolt in 2009 did not arouse great hopes in the West, because the Iranian regime is still buttressed by great power and [its leaders] do not hesitate to use force to preserve their survival.” If so, what is so fascinating about what’s going on in Iran now?
