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The rocky road to Turkish, Israeli reconciliation

Turkey and Israel have much to gain from normalizing their relations, but recent reports to that effect should be met with caution.

Turkish Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioglu addresses the media in Ankara, Turkey, October 16, 2015. REUTERS/Umit Bektas - RTS4Q7Z
Turkish Foreign Ministry official Feridun Sinirlioglu addresses the media in Ankara, Turkey, Oct. 16, 2015. — REUTERS/Umit Bektas

On Dec. 17, Israeli media outlets reported that Turkey and Israel will soon normalize relations. While this is good news for a region that only makes headlines for tragic events, actual normalization in Turkish-Israeli relations may prove elusive.

The five-point memorandum of understanding negotiated between Turkish Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioglu and Israeli Foreign Ministry Director General Dore Gold looks promising: Ankara and Tel Aviv would restore full diplomatic relations and exchange ambassadors; Israel would pay $20 million to the families of the victims of the May 2010 Mavi Marmara raid; Turkey would pass a law ending all current and future legal cases against Israeli soldiers involved in Mavi Marmara; the two sides would begin negotiations on exporting Israeli natural gas to Turkey; and finally — and perhaps most important — Turkey would expel high-ranking Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri and curtail the activities of the militant Palestinian group on its territory.

Interestingly, the Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip seems to be absent from the agreement. Since 2010, the Turkish side has insisted that a full restoration of diplomatic relations with Israel could take place only if the Jewish state lifts the Gaza blockade. Israeli leaders, however, refuse to end sanctions against the Hamas-controlled territory as long as the Palestinian group poses a threat to their country.

Karel Valansi, a Middle East expert and columnist for the Turkish Jewish weekly Salom, thinks “the Gaza issue is still uncertain.” Valansi told Al-Monitor, “Israel will not lift the blockade but could ease it. Will that be enough for Ankara? That is the real question.”

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