The next few months will see President Hassan Rouhani enjoy a peak in popularity. The nuclear agreement reached between Iran and the P5+1 (United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, France and Germany) boosts Rouhani among the public and even the political elite. The mild-mannered president will have much more political capital in his hand. But what will he spend it on? The economy will no doubt be a big focus. Rouhani’s government has already indicated a desire to liberalize and privatize Iran’s moribund economy and possibly loosen the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) chokehold on business. But Rouhani has been relatively reticent on political and social reforms, both of which matter a great deal to Iranians; after all, what is economic prosperity if there is no accompanying personal freedom?

Rouhani was elected president because he offered hope; he claimed that the nuclear agreement would be the “key” to unlock or solve Iran’s problems. But it will take more than a nuclear agreement to make Iran a better place to live. Can Rouhani achieve his people’s dreams? Is he even willing?

Iran’s compliance with the nuclear agreement will be met with significant sanctions relief that may take some time to impact Iran’s economy. If successful, sanctions relief could greatly boost Rouhani’s popularity. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Iran is able to sell oil at pre-sanctions levels and increase trade with the world rather quickly. The economic benefits of sanctions relief may trickle down to the average person. Inflation may decline, the Iranian currency may gain value and the employment rate may also improve. But the Iranian population will still face a major obstacle: Much of Iran’s economy is in the hands of an unelected and unaccountable state. As president, Rouhani is accountable to the voters, but the unelected political establishment — the supreme leader, the IRGC, the clergy — is an entirely different matter.

They have supported the nuclear agreement (there is a lot of money at stake), but they do not hold elected office and don’t need to answer directly to anyone. Moreover, the unelected establishment tends to look upon Iran’s mostly secular and pro-Western middle class (Rouhani’s base) with disdain. Iran’s men of power (and they’re always men) are likely to take much of Iran’s wealth for themselves. However, Rouhani will have to distribute the wealth between major power centers like the Revolutionary Guard in addition to his own supporters. This is not to deny that Rouhani’s supporters won’t see some benefit from sanctions relief, but it is unlikely they will receive the most benefit.