Why Saudi Arabia's Yemen war is not producing victory
Saudi Arabia is seen as having jumped into the war in Yemen without having thought out the consequences for itself, the United States and the struggle against the Islamic State.
As the war in Yemen escalates after a short humanitarian truce, the stakes are getting higher for Saudi Arabia's princes, the region and Washington. The United Nations-hosted talks in Geneva next week are unlikely to get much traction.
The Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) and its Arab allies resumed their bombing campaign this week after a five-day cease-fire to allow humanitarian supplies into Yemen. Saudi Arabia's 29-year-old defense minister, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has staked his and his country's future on achieving some kind of clear-cut victory in the kingdom's war in Yemen. UN talks that leave Sanaa under the control of what the Saudis claim is an illegal Iranian-backed rebel regime are clearly not a decisive victory for the royals. Bin Salman needs much more.
Instead, after weeks of air attacks on the Zaydi Shiite Houthi rebels and their allies, the prince's war looks like a stalemate. The immense damage done to Yemen's weak infrastructure has created considerable bad blood between Yemenis and their rich Gulf neighbors that will poison relations for years. Yemenis always resented their rich brothers; now many will want revenge. Even worse for Riyadh, Iran is scoring a victory on its Gulf rival without any cost to Tehran and with only limited Iranian assistance to the Zaydis.
The Saudis hope they can rally enough Yemenis against the Houthis to build an army to roll back Houthi gains. Special forces are training the Yemenis. Intense battles are destroying Yemeni cities. But even if this approach gains momentum, it will only lead to a brutal civil war in Yemen much like Libya, Syria and Iraq in which al-Qaeda and its offshoots will be the main beneficiaries.
