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Elements for third Palestinian intifada present

The elements that helped trigger the first and second intifadas are present today, raising the possibility of a third Palestinian uprising.
A Palestinian stone-thrower runs under tear gas during clashes with Israeli border police at a checkpoint between Shuafat refugee camp and Jerusalem November 6, 2014. For months, the streets of mainly Arab East Jerusalem, in the shadow of the Old City but where tourists seldom venture, have been ablaze, with daily clashes between armed Israeli police and Palestinians throwing rocks and Molotov cocktails.  REUTERS/Ammar Awad (JERUSALEM - Tags: POLITICS CIVIL UNREST) - RTR4D502

One of the most often repeated themes littering political discussions and commentary by pundits in Israel and Palestine involves when the next intifada will take place. The repeated failure to predict it shows that no one can foresee what combination of issues and actions might produce the collective popular protests that have become associated with Palestinian uprisings against the Israeli occupation.

Despite not being able to identify or predict when the next intifada will erupt, it is a helpful lesson to look at the elements present when the first and second uprisings began and compare them to the current situation. Identifiable elements triggering past intifadas include the absence of a political horizon, violent Israeli repression, an increase in settlement activity and tensions in Jerusalem.

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