Iran apparently was as surprised as the rest of the world by the dramatic offensive in Iraq last week that drove the Iraqi army from Mosul and Tikrit and left Sunni terrorists on the edge of Baghdad. Iran's intelligence services seem to have under estimated the al-Qaeda inspired Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), just as their Western counterparts did. 

But Iran is much better poised to recover and strike back, and will probably emerge as the big winner in the Iraq debacle, solidifying its dominance in Baghdad. The balance of power in the region will tilt further toward Iran.

In Iraq, geography, demography and history all favor Iran. Iran can easily send advisers, experts and special forces to Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq with little or no publicity. Reports that Qassim Suleimani, Quds Force (division of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) commander, is already in Baghdad underscore how quickly Tehran can take action and how well-connected it is with the Nouri al-Maliki regime.

Tehran is also encouraging Iraq's Shiite militias to mobilize the 65% of Iraqis who are fellow Shiites to fight the ISIS terrorist blitzkrieg. For Tehran, it is a historic opportunity to expand its influence to the west among the largest population of Arab Shiites in the world.