Will Russia’s occupation of Crimea produce a fundamental break between Moscow and Western capitals? This is the central strategic question emerging as Russia’s troops consolidate their positions and Western leaders scramble to develop their responses. The answer is not yet apparent, though it could have important implications for US policy in Europe and around the world — particularly in the Middle East.
After a flurry of empty bombast — notwithstanding their rhetoric, neither the United States nor any major European nation has yet imposed the “costs” or “consequences” they have announced — most Western governments now appear to be looking for a negotiated solution, while reserving the prospect of economic sanctions for the future. The United States is leaning further forward, but Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel appears uninterested in taking this approach toward a top trading partner. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has stated explicitly that his government has not yet reached the point of reconsidering the sale of two Mistral helicopter carriers to Russia’s navy.
