GENOA, Italy — At the German Marshall Fund’s Mediterranean Strategy Group, at a meeting held Nov. 20 to 22, participants shared their views on Mediterranean security issues under the Chatham House Rule, allowing them to express opinions openly without the risk of being quoted. In this light, here is a summary of how the Syrian crisis was discussed in terms of implications for a key stakeholder country like Turkey.
To begin with, participants disagreed over the US role in the region. While some considered its decision not to engage militarily in Syria a sign of disengagement from the Middle East, others argued that it is actually more engaged and active in the region than ever before — just in a different way. Still, there was more or less agreement over a lack of a clear Syrian policy at the White House, save for not engaging militarily in the country.
Second, there was agreement that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is getting stronger, not weaker, as the crisis deepens, three years since its beginning. There was also agreement that the prospect of the opposition coalition winning is diminishing rapidly. The upcoming Geneva II conference was discussed as a mere diplomatic effort, which promises no constructive result. All agreed that the strategic landscape in the region is undergoing revision, and that it is no longer possible to trust old traditional alliances, which has a direct impact not only on how countries determine geostrategic interests but also trade policies and beyond.
Put simply, Syria remains in a bloody vicious cycle with no end in sight. This notion of not being able to come up with a solution to end the bloodshed comes as a direct blow to the 2005 UN Resolution that defined the “responsibility to protect” principle as an international duty to prevent the slaughter of civilians in civil wars. While the participants observed that the international system failed to respond promptly and precisely to the crisis in Syria, they agreed that the situation is not irreversible if a coherent policy were to emerge.
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