Turkey’s ongoing domestic unrest creates additional obstacles to the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) plans to export oil through an independent pipeline.
By further checking Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ability to resolve issues essential to Turkey’s national security, namely the PKK “peace process” and the Syrian civil war, the unrest limits Ankara’s maneuverability in Iraqi Kurdistan. International criticism of Erdogan’s authoritarian behavior also weakens his ability or interest in challenging allies — namely the United States — over direct Kurdish crude exports that undermine Iraqi sovereignty. These trends will not diminish Turkish-Erbil energy ties; however, they will further delay the Kurdistan Region’s energy production, reduce projected export levels, and decrease international oil company (IOC) payments, while expanding cross-border trucking operations and its lucrative benefits for KRG officials.
