With the Guardian Council’s elimination of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei from contention, Iran’s upcoming presidential vote looks likely to be a reprise of the 2012 parliamentary elections — victory for the camp of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei but with a relatively low turnout.

Popular enthusiasm for the eight men approved by the Guardian Council on Tuesday (May 21) has been restrained, to say the least. Many middle-class Iranians are likely to stay home rather than choose among six close associates of Khamenei and two men — Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Reza Aref — with pragmatist/reformist credentials but little popular following.

Last year’s parliamentary elections took place in an atmosphere of tight security and controls over free expression. Although the government claimed that 64% of registered voters participated, the figure was believed to have been inflated to increase the appearance of popular support and government legitimacy. A joke that made the rounds in Tehran at the time said that “80% of the people are sitting home watching 70% of the population vote on TV.” 

The Guardian Council, which vets all candidates for elected office, pruned the list of those seeking to run for parliament of most reformists and pragmatists and even supporters of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has fallen out with Khamenei since the disputed 2009 presidential elections. As a result, candidates identified as Khamenei loyalists took more than 70% of the 225 parliamentary seats awarded in the first round and now dominate the 290-member body.