As long as the current international and regional efforts fail to separate the bloody Syrian crisis from the ghost of political deadlock in Beirut, the Lebanese situation faces many possible repercussions.

There is talk in political and diplomatic milieus about intensive international negotiations as part of a settlement deal in Syria. The aim is to pull Lebanon out of this tug of war, and — with the help of Moscow and Tehran — to distance it from the repercussions of the Syrian crisis. It has become clear that there is no need or justification for heated Lebanese disputes regarding the situation in Syria. Moreover, the Syrian conflict — which broke out approximately 22 months ago — has demonstrated the need for a Lebanese hand to help both Syrians and Lebanese equally. Beirut International Airport has become a resort for Syrian refugees, and the world stands as a witness.

Many believe that Lebanon faces two key challenges ahead: first, the results and aftermath of the Syrian crisis; second, internal political conflicts, including the dilemma of deadlocked internal dialogue, the increased tensions in political discourse and the fear of an out-of-control escalation of the security situation.

Several observers believe that the next few months will see an escalation of the political and military crisis in Syria, especially if no agreements are reached. Consequently, the number of Syrian refugees in Lebanon will increase. Although the Lebanese government succeeded last year in containing the political, security and social repercussions of the Syrian crisis, it might be unable to keep this up. This would put Lebanon face to face with dangerous challenges.