Lebanon's electoral and political landscape remains under close surveillance as regional and international fault lines take shape. This anticipation results from new information implying that the next three months will be critical in deciding the fate of the Syrian conflict. Reports from Western countries suggest that Russian sources have presented information to Lebanese leaders showing that ongoing skirmishes in Damascus are primed to ignite into full-scale war. If these assessments are accurate, Lebanon would experience significant repercussions within its borders.

Spillover from Syria is likely to create security disturbances inside Lebanon. These events could inhibit other developments in Lebanon — or, put more plainly, unless the clouds of the Syrian conflict disperse, Lebanon will remain void of political dialogue, election law reform and elections. And according to international consensus, Syria's long-standing crisis is likely to continue into the foreseeable future.

Diplomatic sources have revealed secret communications between the major countries about maintaining Lebanon’s fragile stability in the face of three separate approaching challenges: first, the upcoming international tribunal procedures; second, the ramifications of the Syrian crisis; and third, results from the June parliamentary elections.

Sources confirmed that the international community’s major decision-making centers want to ensure that Lebanese parliamentary elections run on schedule and in accordance with electoral law, whether the current law or a reformed one. These elections are seen as a step towards future presidential elections, scheduled to take place in the spring of 2014. Sources have indicated that Washington and major European capitals are determined that elections happen on time — even if those elections must be conducted below normal standards.