Politics & Security - AL-MONITOR: The Middle Eastʼs leading independent news source since 2012

politics and security cover image

Politics & Security

Iranian NOPO special police officers stand guard in front of a large portrait of Iran's late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at Valiasr square on July 3, 2026, in Tehran, Iran.

Analysis

As Trump declares deal 'over,' IRGC takes lead in shaping Iran's response

While President Donald Trump has declared the US-Iran memorandum over, Tehran's response suggests it is recalibrating — not abandoning — its strategy as military pressure increasingly eclipses diplomacy.

A correspondent in Tehran

By A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Getty Images

Trump 'undecided' on Turkey's F-35s as Congress seeks answers on S-400

Top Democratic lawmakers say the ball is in Ankara’s court on rejoining the US-led F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, but suggest that Turkey offshoring its Russian-made S-400 system won’t be enough.

Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (R) shakes hands with Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian during his visit in Yerevan on July 19, 2025. (Photo by KAREN MINASYAN / AFP) (Photo by KAREN MINASYAN/AFP via Getty Images)

Feature

Armenia's Pashinyan keeps Iran close while wooing Trump, Turkey and Azerbaijan

As Yerevan pursues normalization with Turkey and Azerbaijan and backs a US-led transport corridor, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is working to reassure an increasingly assertive Iran that its interests won't be threatened.

Amberin Zaman

By Amberin Zaman

Reporting on geopolitics, minorities, human rights, culture

Andreas SOLARO / AFP via Getty Images

Lebanon's Aoun to meet Trump in first presidential summit in US since 2009

The visit by the Lebanese head of state will coincide with ongoing US-sponsored Lebanon-Israel talks.

Latest News

Trump declares MoU with Iran 'over' as Hegseth cancels trip to Israel

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (not shown) for bilateral talks at Beştepe Presidential Compound during the NATO Summit on July 08, 2026 in Ankara, Turkey. Leaders from NATO's 32 countries, plus NATO allies like Ukraine, gathered in the Turkish capital to discuss a range of issues involving spending targets, defense industrial production, and support for Ukraine, among other topics. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

US airstrikes hit Iran after tankers attacked in Hormuz

In this US Navy released handout, an F/A-18E Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 14, prepares to take off from the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) in support of Operation Epic Fury on March 1, 2026 at Sea.

Amberin Zaman

Chief Correspondent

Reporting on geopolitics, minorities, human rights, culture

Adam Lucente

News and Business Correspondent

In New York City, reporting on regional news, militancy, climate change

Elizabeth Hagedorn

Diplomatic Correspondent

In Washington, DC, reporting on diplomacy, regional politics, human rights

Ezgi Akin

Associate Editor (Turkey)

In Ankara, reporting on diplomacy, EU-Turkey ties, NATO

Ben Caspit

Israel Columnist

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Jared Szuba

Defense and Security Correspondent

In Washington, DC, reporting on defense, national security, military

Motorists drive along a flooded street following heavy rains in Dubai early on April 17, 2024.

Record rainfall forces Gulf cities to rethink climate change

A climate change monitor estimates that global warming made the Gulf deluge 10-40% more intense than it would have been in the pre-industrial era.

United Arab Emirates

WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 9: U.S. President Joe Biden points to WNBA Champion Las Vegas Aces players and other invited guests as he walks towards Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on May 9, 2024 in Washington, DC, for a short trip to Andrews Air Force Base, Md. Biden is traveling to San Francisco, California for campaign fundraisers. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Analysis

As Netanyahu fans flames, will Biden lose Israeli center over arms cut?

Israeli leaders, including from the political center, were surprised and disappointed by President Joe Biden's threat to withhold the delivery of offensive arms to Israel in the event of a large-scale Rafah operation.

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Displaced Palestinians gather their belongings before fleeing al-Mawasi to a safer area in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on May 9, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and militants from the Hamas movement.

Biden approaches 'red line' with Netanyahu 7 months into Gaza war

After months spent warning Israel against launching an assault in Rafah, Biden said such an operation would result in the US blocking arms shipments to the Jewish state.

People are gathered to protest cooperation between Turkey and Israel.

Turkey, Israel tangle in fresh row over trade ban

The fresh tensions between the two regional powers seem to be stemming from a Turkish directive sent to companies that were doing business with Israel to introduce a three-month adjustment period for implementation of the trade ban.

International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan looks on during an interview with AFP at the Cour d'Honneur of the Palais Royal in Paris on Feb. 7, 2024.

Can Republicans in Congress punish ICC if it issues Israel arrest warrants?

“Target Israel and we will target you,” lawmakers warn prosecutor Karim Khan, as the court reportedly prepares to indict the Israeli prime minister and other Israeli officials.

AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP via Getty Images

With draft letters done, Turkey and US inch closer to concluding $23B F-16 deal

Turkey has concluded its part on draft letter of offer for the $23 billion sale, a Turkish official said.

AFP via Getty Images

CIA director, Israel and Hamas leave Egypt talks with no deal reached

After representatives of Hamas and the United States left Cairo, the Israeli delegation also departed on Thursday as sources told Kan news agency that "irreconcilable gaps" had emerged between the parties.

Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran's atomic energy department, and Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi take part in a press conference in Isfahan on May 7, 2024.

Iran warns it will change ‘nuclear doctrine’ if threatened by Israel

The remarks come less than a month after an unprecedented Iranian drone attack in Israel and apparent retaliatory strikes in Iran’s Isfahan.

Tourists visit the Chora (Kariye) Church Museum, the 11th century church of St. Savior on August 21, 2020 in Istanbul, Turkey.

Erdogan's Byzantine church conversion roils Greece ahead of PM's Turkey visit

The Byzantine-era cathedral's inauguration as a working mosque came just days before a landmark visit to Turkey by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, which is due to kick off on May 13.

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

CIA chief meets Netanyahu as Israel sees no imminent deal from Cairo talks

Israel kept its negotiating team in Cairo as CIA chief William Burns met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP via Getty Images

Biden pauses transfer of bombs to Israel amid concerns of Rafah invasion

It's the first time the Biden administration has admitted restricting the flow of arms to Israel in a bid to shape the ongoing war in Gaza, but the move failed to stop a limited initial incursion into Rafah.

Palestinians crowd a street as smoke billows nearby from Israeli strikes in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on May 7, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Palestinian Fatah official slams Israel’s Rafah push but hopeful on Gaza deal

Abbas Zaki told Al-Monitor he’s hopeful the strong international response will leave Israel with no choice but to withdraw from the Rafah crossing and potentially accept a deal.