Hot Take: Veiled threat from Tehran aimed at Baku

Heating up: Iran is escalating tensions with Azerbaijan over Baku’s longstanding close ties with Iran’s nemesis, Israel. Iran has staged troop exercises near the Azerbaijan border in response to joint Azeri exercises with Turkish forces, at which Azeri President Ilham Aliyev showed up in military attire. Azerbaijan has reportedly stopped Iranian trucks transiting to its rival, Armenia, and Iran has reciprocated by closing its airspace to Azeri military flights. The escalation may be backfiring: Baku now is reportedly considering buying the Israel Arrow 3 missile as a self-defense measure.

Context: Iran is concerned by Azerbaijan’s close ties to both Israel and Turkey. Israel buys Azerbaijan’s oil, and Azerbaijan buys Israeli weapons, including drone technology. Both Turkey and Israel backed Azerbaijan’s successful military campaign against Armenia last year in Nagorno-Karabakh, while Iran tilts toward Armenia as a counterweight to Turkish-Israeli-Azeri influence in the region. Azerbaijan also recently unearthed an Iranian cell in the country targeting Israeli interests. The relationship is complicated by the fact that ethnic Azeris make up approximately 25% of Iran’s population of about 83 million.

Shadow war comes into light: Meanwhile, the shadow war between Israel and Iran appears to be picking up. Israel tagged Iran for a reported assassination plot against Israeli businessmen in Cyprus, which Jerusalem has labeled an “act of terror.” Israeli security officials consider the move retaliation for Iran’s killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in November 2020, as Ben Caspit reports here.