While Russian foreign policy circles have noted reasons why President-elect Joe Biden’s administration may see the Middle Eastern theater relegated further down the list of American policy priorities, Moscow sees the lame-duck period of Donald Trump’s presidency as an opportune time to shore up its positions in Syria.

This gap between the analysts’ expectations and the Kremlin’s real agenda is hardly surprising. One key feature of Russian policymaking in the Middle East is its fragmentation, with the opinions of the security services and private military organizations carrying the greatest weight. President Vladimir Putin remains the ultimate authority and beneficiary of the Russian strategy and has the last say on all the key decisions. In this scheme of things, the expert community is not supposed to advise the Kremlin or even explain its actions. All that is expected of experts, instead, is validating and justifying the authorities’ decisions post-factum.

The Russian military’s decision to set up positions around the northeast Syrian town of Ain Issa is one manifestation of Moscow’s activity during the current turbulent period. The move became possible thanks to the deal Russia made with the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The deal’s aim is to reduce attacks from nearby areas controlled by Turkey and the opposition. However, few entertain illusions that the deal amounts to an improvisation on the part of the Russians in order to ease tensions in the region. Russia and Turkey coordinated their efforts to undermine the SDF, even when the tensions between the two countries had escalated after the shootdown of a Russian SU-24 aircraft. Moscow also facilitated contacts between Ankara and Damascus on the Kurdish issue on different platforms, including through Algeria.

According to a source knowledgeable on Russian military activities in Syria, Ankara and Moscow are doing their best to avoid provoking the Kurds and the Americans in the region to limit the possibility of a conflagration. Instead, they act in a somewhat "hybrid" fashion, the source told Al-Monitor. Thus, soon after Turkey’s attempt to press the Kurds in Ain Issa, Russia suggested the SDF either vacate the region or transfer it under the control of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Yet in the end, the two sides agreed that there would be a presence of Russian forces in those territories. This way of resolving the situation appears palatable to Ankara, as it gives it greater leverage in negotiations with Moscow, even though stationing Russian military elements in Ain Issa may spawn new contradictions between the two sides, the same source said.