While Russian foreign policy circles have noted reasons why President-elect Joe Biden’s administration may see the Middle Eastern theater relegated further down the list of American policy priorities, Moscow sees the lame-duck period of Donald Trump’s presidency as an opportune time to shore up its positions in Syria.
This gap between the analysts’ expectations and the Kremlin’s real agenda is hardly surprising. One key feature of Russian policymaking in the Middle East is its fragmentation, with the opinions of the security services and private military organizations carrying the greatest weight. President Vladimir Putin remains the ultimate authority and beneficiary of the Russian strategy and has the last say on all the key decisions. In this scheme of things, the expert community is not supposed to advise the Kremlin or even explain its actions. All that is expected of experts, instead, is validating and justifying the authorities’ decisions post-factum.