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What’s next for Erdogan after eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus?

Turkey's involvement in the South Caucasus conflict and decision to test the S-400 missile system show that Erdogan is continuing to embark on new adventures despite his recent failure in the eastern Mediterranean.

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People attend a funeral service of an Armenian soldier who died in recent military clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, at a church in Yerevan, Armenia, on Oct. 9, 2020. Armenia and Azerbaijan held their first high-level talks the same day after nearly two weeks of fierce clashes over the disputed region. — KAREN MINASYAN/AFP via Getty Images

Although Turkey’s gunboat diplomacy in the eastern Mediterranean ended in failure, Ankara’s direct involvement in the South Caucasus conflict and decision to test the S-400 missile system show Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's continued insistence on an adventurist foreign policy.

During his visit to Turkey’s staunch and perhaps only Arab ally Qatar on Oct. 8, Erdogan gave an interview to the Qatari daily The Peninsula. “The issue of the Aegean and the Mediterranean is one that Turkey will never take a step back from. … Those who see our determination in the Eastern Mediterranean and realize that they cannot make our country step back with empty threats and blackmails have eventually paid heed to our calls for dialogue. We have, however, kept diplomacy channels open from the very beginning,” Erdogan said.

A day later, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met his Greek counterpart Nikos Dendias and announced that Turkey and Greece had agreed on starting exploratory talks to resolve pending issues.

Someone without much knowledge of recent developments could easily, by listening to Erdogan and his foreign minister, come to the conclusion that Turkey’s belligerent eastern Mediterranean policy achieved its main goal: to bring Greece to the negotiating table. 

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