Turkey-Syria: Countdown to conflict or compromise in Idlib?

Turkish and Syrian forces continue to flow into Idlib, which is on edge anticipating a perhaps final battle for control of the opposition stronghold.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports that nearly 5,000 Turkish military vehicles have entered the northern Syrian province since the Russia-Turkey cease-fire March 5.  This adds up to 8,325 military vehicles, 11,500 troops and 66 Turkish checkpoints since February. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has no easy out in Idlib, nonetheless considers his military forces in Syria, and his support for armed Syrian opposition groups, as leverage in shaping the Syrian endgame. While he may not want a fight, he has no plans to back down or withdraw.

Bad blood: The Syrian military, backed by Russia, launched an offensive in December 2019 to retake the province from armed opposition forces, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (“Liberation of the Levant,” or HTS), which the United States and the UN Security Council have designated as an al-Qaeda linked terrorist group. HTS has an estimated 12,00-15,000 fighters. The Syrian military attacked Turkish outposts as part of the assault, killing Turkish soldiers and sparking direct Turkish-Syrian military confrontations in January-February 2020, with casualties on both sides.