There are four fronts of Operation Peace Spring: the military front on the ground, diplomatic front, the optical front (in the eyes of Western public opinion and the international community) and the domestic front.
The operational picture on the ninth day of incursion as of Oct. 17 is: The Turkish army and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, in a coordinated operation, secured the control of a 100 kilometer by 30 kilometer (62 by 19 mile) area between Tell Abyad-Ras al-Ain and the M4 highway. That corresponds to about 20% of the 35-kilometer deep zone Turkey wants to control between Manbij and the Iraqi border.
At the moment, apart from minor armed skirmishes at Ras al-Ain, the central sector is static. In the eastern sector, in the framework of a memorandum of understanding reportedly signed between the Bashar al-Assad regime and the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), open sources reported Assad forces have entered Hasakah, Qamishi and Derik town centers, hoisted Syrian flags and set up checkpoints, Also, as reported by the media, some YPG groups have changed uniforms and are wearing uniforms of Assad forces. In the western sector, there are occasional exchanges of artillery-rocket fire between the Turkish army and the YPG that have been causing civilian casualties; however, the fire has not been as heavy as at the beginning of the incursion.
The important developments were on the western sector of the Manbij-Kobani line Oct. 13. Manbij is particularly critical because it connects the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army-controlled Jarablus-al Rai-al Bab triangle and Afrin to the east of Euphrates, making it a priority target for Ankara. A quick decision by Trump to withdraw US troops from Manbij appears to have been coordinated with the Russians, whose flag is flying over the Manbij city center and the critical front lines. Currently Russian special forces and military police are patrolling along the front line, with Russia taking over control of bases the United States has abandoned. We know that the United States has left Manbij airspace and Turkish F-16s shelled the area to slow down the advance of Assad forces and to give time to FSA units that are trying to move from al-Bab to the northeast. That was the only Turkish airstrike, giving the impression that Russia has also taken over control of the Manbij airspace and closed it to others.
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