Israel’s scenario of the 'big' earthquake

A magnitude 4.4 earthquake struck the Mediterranean on May 15. Tremors were felt in many cities throughout Israel, raising the public panic level. It is a fact that significant earthquakes have struck Israel and the immediate region every 90-100 years, with the last major earthquake occurring in the northern Dead Sea region in July 1927. Over 300 people were killed in the quake, which caused significant damage in Jerusalem, Jericho, Ramle, Lod, Tiberias and Nablus. Statistically, Israel is now closer than ever to another devastating earthquake.

In July 2018, the State Comptroller published a report titled “National Preparedness for an Earthquake: Buildings and National Infrastructures.” According to the report, a major earthquake in Israel is a near certainty, and it would have an enormous impact on various regions throughout the country. “Based on the Preparedness Program approved by the government, Israel should be ready to deal with 7,000 dead, 8,600 severely injured, 37,000 lightly injured, 9,500 victims trapped in the ruins of buildings, and 170,000 people left homeless,” wrote the State Comptroller.

Other scenarios anticipate as many as 20,000 dead and many more Israelis left homeless. According to Efraim Laor, founder of AFRAN - National Research Institute for Disaster Reduction, some 320,000 buildings would be damaged in an earthquake. “And I think that’s a low estimate,” he added.

These estimates are based on the fact that most residential buildings in Israel were not constructed to withstand earthquakes. The current standard first went into effect in 1975, and only became compulsory in 1980. “There are 80,000 buildings in Israel that were constructed before 1980 and are now in real danger of collapse in the event of an earthquake. Israel is far from prepared for a disaster of this magnitude,” professor Eran Feitelson of the Hebrew University’s Department of Geography told Al-Monitor.