Turkey’s soaring inflation, exacerbated by a fresh spike in August, is stoking apprehension over the country’s economic future and appears to strengthen the prospect of an intervention by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The August figures, released Sept. 3, brought year-on-year inflation to 18% in consumer prices and 32% in producer prices. Barring Argentina, such rates are unseen among Turkey’s emerging-economy peers, in many of which inflation is not even in double digits.

The price hikes are unlikely to abate in the coming months, with consumer inflation expected to hit at least 20% at the year-end. The ballooning problem owes much to structural reasons, which highlights the need for sounder diagnoses and long-term remedies.

Two key factors are pushing inflation to the creeping 20% level: the rising prices of agricultural products and food, and the dramatic depreciation of the Turkish lira.

Turkey used to have a self-sufficient agricultural sector, but ill-advised policies and neglect of the sector have resulted in annual imports of $9 billion to cover the food gap at home. The deficit in the food supply is a key reason for the surge in inflation. In fresh vegetables and fruits, for instance, year-on-year inflation stands at a staggering 38%.