Since the 1990s, every prime minister of Israel has been entangled in a criminal investigation of one kind or another. It happened to Benjamin Netanyahu during his first term, and it happened to Ehud Barak, Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert (who served time in prison), and now to Netanyahu for a second time. It is the first time in the history of Israel, however, that the police have recommended indicting a sitting prime minister for bribery.

The police described Netanyahu’s relationship with billionaire Arnon Milchan as “based on bribery.” They determined that on more than one occasion, Netanyahu acted counter to the country’s interests to receive benefits valued at around $280,000. The police similarly described his relationship with Yedioth Ahronoth publisher Arnon Mozes as one of “give and take,” or in other words, bribery in every sense of the word. In the case of Netanyahu’s relationship with Australian billionaire James Packer, the police recommended that he “only” be indicted for fraud and breach of trust.

The recommendations by the police on Feb. 13 kicked off a political earthquake, rocking Israel’s political and legal systems. Netanyahu has yet to be deposed. The last word must come from Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit. Nevertheless, Netanyahu has become a lame duck. Going forward, the slightest injury could end Netanyahu's political career. Olmert found himself in the same situation right after the Second Lebanon War, in 2006. Right now, the keys to Netanyahu’s political survival lie with Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon. Everything will come to an end once the finance minister decides that holding on to them is more painful than the thought of cutting his successful tenure short over the Netanyahu investigations. It might never happen, but it could also come about much quicker than Netanyahu imagines.

According to Israeli law, a prime minister is not required to resign after the police recommend indictment. Netanyahu would not even be required to resign if the attorney general decides to indict. In theory, Netanyahu could remain in power until he is convicted, although it is unlikely to happen. If it did occur, it would be a first in Israeli history. The Supreme Court has already ruled that other ministers must resign when indicted.