President Donald Trump’s Dec. 6 recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel has not set off a regional conflagration, for now, but it dealt a serious blow to efforts to revive the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process. This assessment is only valid for the moment, because at any given time, something could go wrong and prompt a new wave of violence. That said, predictions of unrest throughout the Middle East in response to Trump's move were clearly overblown, whereas the declaration’s impact on the diplomatic front may have been underrated.

As of now, the Palestinians have abandoned the diplomatic arena. They are standing behind their rejection of the United States as an honest broker in the conflict, while enjoying sweeping support in most regional capitals. US Vice President Mike Pence was forced to delay a December visit to the region to possibly next month. Trump’s two envoys to the region, Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt, are persona non grata in the Palestinian territories.

The Palestinians are acting like the diplomatic option is dead. The White House believes this to be a passing emotional storm. According to Israeli military intelligence assessments, everything will go back to normal within several weeks. One intelligence official told Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity, “[Palestinian President] Mahmoud Abbas has no alternative to the US. For now, he has to contain his people’s rage … but in the near future, it will be business as usual.”

There are also warnings amid such soothing assessments. “Abbas is on his last lap around the stadium,” a senior Israeli security official told Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity. “In recent months, we’ve been seeing a different Abbas. More daring, more determined, someone who understands that there will be no more opportunities and has nothing to lose.”