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Can Erdogan afford to scuttle the refugee deal with EU?

Although Erdogan still says EU cannot order Turkey around, he may well soften his bluster if he gets the presidency he wants.
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Turkey’s ties with the European Union appeared to be set on a better course recently after having remained largely dormant over the past few years. This was not due, however, to a decision by Ankara to introduce the democratic reforms necessary for its membership bid in the EU. The refugee crisis forced Europe into cooperating with Ankara, even though Turkey’s democracy continues to deteriorate under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The agreement signed in Brussels between Turkey and the EU on March 18 foresees the return to Turkey of all illegal migrants who have continued to cross into Greece since March 20. For every illegal migrant returned, Turkey will send a refugee to Europe through legal channels. Europe will also extend a total of 6 billion euros to Turkey by 2018 to cope with the refugee crisis.

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