Israel’s deadlock: Could Trump broker Netanyahu-Eisenkot deal?

TEL AVIV — With the majority of votes counted, Israel finds itself in a political stalemate, with neither side able to claim victory. US President Donald Trump may be the only person capable of breaking the deadlock by pressuring the rival camps into forming a unity government, political sources told Al-Monitor.

According to the Central Elections Committee’s figures released Wednesday afternoon, the results put Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud at 26 Knesset seats, with Gadi Eisenkot’s center-right Yashar party trailing in second place with 21. Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties holds 53 seats, compared with 48 for the opposing camp, excluding the two Arab parties, which together are projected to win 17 seats.

Although Netanyahu has retained the lead despite the disastrous events of the past three years under his watch, beginning with Hamas’ assault on Oct. 7, 2023, he remains at least seven seats short of a parliamentary majority.

President Isaac Herzog, speaking publicly for the first time since the polls closed, said Wednesday that Israel must avoid another election. "I expect everyone who comes here to come with an open mind,” he said, adding that he would begin consultations with the parties next week after receiving the official results.

Under Israeli law, the president tasks the lawmaker he believes is best placed to form a government with the mandate to do so. It's usually, but not necessarily, the leader of the largest party.

No clear victory

A stalemate between the rival camps was widely predicted in the run-up to the elections. But the biggest surprise of the day came from a constituency many Israelis regard as illegitimate political partners: the country’s Arab minority, which makes up about 21% of the population, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics. 

The historic strong turnout among Arab voters translated into a projected 17 seats in parliament. Arab factions made up of the Joint List and Raam held a combined 10 seats in the outgoing Knesset. The Joint List is an alliance of three Arab parties that focuses on Arab citizens’ rights and Palestinian national aspirations. Raam, an Islamist party, has repeatedly said it is willing to join a governing coalition to advance Arab society’s interests from within.

The overall 77% turnout, the highest since the 1999 elections, was driven largely by anger at Netanyahu’s government, particularly Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, the political sources argued.

Eisenkot’s bloc could, in theory, command a parliamentary majority of 66 seats by aligning with the Arab parties. But such an alliance would amount to political suicide, a senior opposition source told Al-Monitor. The prevailing view in Israel is that a majority of Jewish voters oppose including Arab parties in a governing coalition. A Sept. 27 poll by Israel’s public broadcaster Kan found that 55% of Jewish respondents supported disqualifying the Joint List from running in the elections, while 54% backed disqualifying Raam. 

The only politician to have attempted such an arrangement was Naftali Bennett, who brought Raam into his government after ousting Netanyahu and Likud in June 2021. Bennett paid a heavy price for the move and lost power to Netanyahu after 18 months. 

On Tuesday night, Netanyahu delivered what amounted to a victory speech. Addressing supporters at the Jerusalem Convention Center, he claimed that his right-wing bloc had a “decisive majority” among Jewish voters and called for the formation of a “national right-wing, strong government.”

As the final results are expected Thursday afternoon, Netanyahu stopped short of explicitly declaring victory. Still, although his bloc fell short of a parliamentary majority, his Likud party's lead positions Netanyahu well in his bid for a seventh term as prime minister.

Potential arrangements 

Technically, Eisenkot could form a minority government with the outside backing of two Arab parties, or even with Raam entering the government. The prospects of any such arrangement, however, are slim, not least because he has repeatedly pledged to form a Zionist government. Nor are his partners in the so-called Change Bloc — Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beitenu, and Bennett, head of the Together party — likely to support such a move, the senior opposition source acknowledged.

Netanyahu could try to lure opposition lawmakers into defecting to his camp to secure the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. Given the current political climate and the electoral arithmetic, such defections are unlikely, though not impossible.

Netanyahu, who once enjoyed warm relations with Raam leader Mansour Abbas, could also reach out to his party. Such a move would set a new benchmark for political cynicism, given Netanyahu’s own campaign warning against high Arab voter turnout and that supporting his rivals amounted to supporting a Palestinian state.

Two other possibilities appear more plausible: a broad-based unity government bringing together Eisenkot and Netanyahu, or another round of elections. According to the political sources, Netanyahu might actually prefer another election, which would allow him to remain caretaker prime minister and campaign from a position of power. Seeking to hold on to power, Netanyahu could use the interim period to resume the war against Iran, an option he has long favored but that Trump has so far blocked, or launch another major offensive against Hamas in Gaza, said the political sources.

Unity government

The next phase of Israel’s post-election politics will be a political poker game over the future of the country. Eisenkot could call Netanyahu’s bluff, challenging his claim to have won and beginning negotiations with other party leaders to assemble a governing majority. Such a strategy could pressure Netanyahu into accepting a unity government on Eisenkot’s terms. Still, it is unclear whether Eisenkot would be interested in such an option. 

Rotation agreements, under which two leaders alternate as prime minister, have been tried before. Most recently, Benny Gantz, a former political partner of Eisenkot, agreed to such an arrangement with Netanyahu in 2020. Netanyahu was to serve as prime minister for 18 months before handing the office to Gantz for the remainder of a three-year term. Whether Netanyahu ever intended to honor the deal remains a matter of speculation. What is clear is that he refused to endorse a 2021 budget and the government collapsed in December 2020, triggering another election.

“The system is in a terrible predicament,” a senior political source in Netanyahu’s coalition told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “There are no good options."

An Israeli security source was even more pessimistic. “This is happening at a time of peak security tensions. Netanyahu was only barely prevented from launching a military adventure on the eve of the elections, and now it is not clear who will be able to stop him, especially in the days following the US midterm elections,” the security source said on condition of anonymity.

Some Israelis are looking to Trump to break the deadlock by backing a unity government. Such an arrangement would suit Washington and, in the view of the opposition source, is the only logical solution to the impasse.

“The ball is in Trump’s court,” the source said. “A unity government without the Israeli far right would enable Trump to tell his rivals within his own party and the Democrats that he is not condoning settler violence and that he expects to advance his peace plan for Gaza.”

Trust remains the obstacle. The source noted that when a unity government was last formed in 2020, “Netanyahu didn’t keep his promise and broke the agreement.”