Israel exit polls show Netanyahu, Eisenkot short of majority as Arab parties surge

TEL AVIV — Israel’s election exit polls show neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition securing a clear path to a parliamentary majority, despite Likud emerging as the largest party and Arab parties making major gains.

According to exit polls published by public broadcaster KAN and Channel 12, Likud is projected to win 24–25 seats in the 120-member Knesset, ahead of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which is projected to secure 21–22 seats. Likud would nevertheless fall well short of its current 32 seats, while Yashar appears to have underperformed expectations after opinion polls over the past four months consistently projected it would overtake Likud.

Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to win 50 seats, compared with 52–53 for Eisenkot’s bloc. Arab parties are expected to secure 17–18 seats, potentially leaving neither side with a clear route to the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. The Arab parties currently have 10 seats.

The exit polls suggest a significant drop for Netanyahu's bloc, which has 64 seats in the current parliament. 

In a post on X after the first exit polls were released, Eisenkot said, "The preliminary poll results point to complete distrust in Netanyahu," adding, "If these are the final results, this is a victory for the statist-Zionist majority in Israel," and vowing to "replace the government." 

The exit polls point to a potentially difficult coalition-building process, with huge gains by Arab parties further complicating the arithmetic.

Under Israeli law, the president usually picks the leader of the largest party to try to form a government but is guided by recommendations from the parties elected to the Knesset. That task can go to whoever appears best placed to build a majority. 

Official results are expected by Thursday morning local time. 

This is a breaking story and will be updated.