When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with President Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday, one of his top asks is widely expected to be that Turkey be allowed to reenter the consortium that builds Lockheed Martin’s F-35 stealth fighter jets. A close second is likely to be for the United States to end its support for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, observers say. In both cases, Ankara faces an uphill battle.

When announcing his invitation to the Turkish leader on his Truth Social platform, Trump confirmed that the F-35s would be on the table. “We are working on many Trade and Military Deals with the President, including the large-scale purchase of Boeing aircraft, a major F-16 Deal, and a continuation of the F-35 talks, which we expect to conclude positively,” Trump said. “President Erdogan and I have always had a very good relationship.”

In an apparent bid to humor the deal-thirsty US president, Turkey is planning to finalize a deal with Boeing to purchase 250 commercial jets for its national carrier, Turkish Airlines. In addition to 40 F-35s, Turkey also wants 40 F-16 Vipers as well as bombs and munitions worth billions of dollars. But observers caution that for all the hype surrounding Erdogan’s long-sought reception, the F-35 reboot is far from assured due to long-running and bipartisan resistance in the US Congress.

Turkey was kicked out of the program in July 2019 in response to its acquisition of the S-400 Russian air defense system, which was deemed to be a threat to NATO security. The move dealt a huge blow to Turkey, which saw its historical foe Greece sign a deal last year that could potentially win it air dominance in the Aegean Sea: the purchase of at least 20 F-35A Lightning II jets, initial deliveries of which are slated to begin in 2028.