Several pieces to the puzzle that is the end of the war on Gaza appear to be moving in different directions. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel on Tuesday following meetings in Jordan and the Gulf, and is set to meet on Wednesday with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah. Immediately after this meeting, Abbas will be flown by a Jordanian helicopter from Ramallah to either Amman or Aqaba, where he will participate in a three-way summit along with Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. The official Jordanian position continued to be focused on three direct goals: continuing to work for a permanent cease-fire, making sure that no Palestinians are resettled out of Gaza, and ensuring that needed food and humanitarian supplies can reach the needy in Gaza.
What statements from Jordanian officials have failed to address, however, is whether the upcoming summit will tackle “day-after” scenarios that are an important ingredient for any cease-fire agreement. Blinken’s mission as the US presidential campaign season gets into full swing is to end this war, which is causing President Joe Biden to lose support among major constituencies that he will need to win a second term.
Egypt, which along with Qatar is trying to come up with an acceptable plan to end the war, was rebuffed earlier by the Palestinian presidency when Cairo suggested a technocratic government as step two in a three-phase plan that would include a prisoner exchange and cease-fire agreement. It is not clear if the Aqaba meeting will produce any movement on this issue, but it is clear that various individuals and groups are trying to be part of the day-after plans.
If the latest column by Nahum Barnea of Yedioth Aharonoth is accurate, then Hamas’ military leader, Yahya Sinwar, has set two conditions for a cease-fire: The first is a total exchange of all Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails for all the Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Second, according to the well-connected Barnea, Hamas stays in power in Gaza. While the second condition is most likely negotiable, most believe that the first is not.
