Can the Kremlin live without Wagner in Syria?
Probably, writes Anton Mardasov from Moscow, in a must-read analysis of the implications of the ill-fated Wagner coup threat for Russia’s foreign policies in Africa and the Middle East.
While replacing Wagner in Africa may be difficult, the challenges may be less in Syria. There, “it is hypothetically easiest to replace over time the extensive military and administrative structure of the Wagner PMC and solve the problem of mercenary salaries, which are several times higher than the salary of a Russian contract servicemen,” writes Mardasov.
“In addition to the cadre of military personnel in Syria, there is Redut PMC, created by the [Russian] MoD, staffed and funded by Airborne reservists. Also, the projects of Gennady Timchenko, a businessman close to the Kremlin, continue to operate in Syria, which may well absorb Prigozhin's economic projects in Homs and several other provinces,” he writes.
