Skip to main content
ALM Exclusive

Al-Monitor/Premise Turkey poll: Erdogan, Kilicdaroglu statistically tied in election runoff

The poll found the economy, refugees and justice stand out as the top three issues that the country faces, with 71% of respondents favoring an imminent return of refugees in the country.
TOPSHOT - A huge electoral poster bearing a portrait of Turkish President and presidential candidate of AK Party Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a slogan which reads "Keep going with the right man" covers the facade of a high-rise building in Ankara, on May 23, 2023, ahead of the presidential election runoff on May 28, 2023. (Photo by Adem ALTAN / AFP) (Photo by ADEM ALTAN/AFP via Getty Images)

ANKARA — As Turkey prepares to hold its first ever runoff vote to elect its next president on Sunday, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu are locked in a statistical tie, a new Al-Monitor/Premise poll found, while a significant portion of voters remain undecided.

The poll of 970 respondents was conducted by Al-Monitor in partnership with Premise Data between May 19 and May 23 across Turkey. The margin of error is +/-3.

The poll indicates a nail-biting race in Turkey, the closest in the country's modern history. It showed 40% of respondents favoring Erdogan and 39% favoring Kilicdaroglu. A whopping 15% of those polled remain undecided only five days before the election. 

Access the Middle East news and analysis you can trust

Join our community of Middle East readers to experience all of Al-Monitor, including 24/7 news, analyses, memos, reports and newsletters.


Only $100 per year.