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Al-Monitor/Premise Turkey poll: Erdogan, Kilicdaroglu statistically tied in election runoff

The poll found the economy, refugees and justice stand out as the top three issues that the country faces, with 71% of respondents favoring an imminent return of refugees in the country.

TOPSHOT - A huge electoral poster bearing a portrait of Turkish President and presidential candidate of AK Party Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a slogan which reads "Keep going with the right man" covers the facade of a high-rise building in Ankara, on May 23, 2023, ahead of the presidential election runoff on May 28, 2023. (Photo by Adem ALTAN / AFP) (Photo by ADEM ALTAN/AFP via Getty Images)
A huge electoral poster bearing a portrait of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reading "Keep going with the right man" covers the facade of a high-rise building in Ankara, on May 23, 2023, ahead of the presidential runoff on May 28, 2023. — ADEM ALTAN/AFP via Getty Images

ANKARA — As Turkey prepares to hold its first ever runoff vote to elect its next president on Sunday, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu are locked in a statistical tie, a new Al-Monitor/Premise poll found, while a significant portion of voters remain undecided.

The poll of 970 respondents was conducted by Al-Monitor in partnership with Premise Data between May 19 and May 23 across Turkey. The margin of error is +/-3.

The poll indicates a nail-biting race in Turkey, the closest in the country's modern history. It showed 40% of respondents favoring Erdogan and 39% favoring Kilicdaroglu. A whopping 15% of those polled remain undecided only five days before the election. 

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