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Russian invasion of Ukraine would spell more economic turbulence for Turkey

War would bring Turkey under intense pressure from its Western allies to join putative sanctions against Russia, a critical trading partner and supplier of natural gas.

Burak Kara/Getty Images
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin attend the opening ceremony of the TurkStream Gas Pipeline Project on Jan. 8, 2020, in Istanbul, Turkey. — Burak Kara/Getty Images

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Feb. 3 meeting with his counterpart Volodymr Zelenskyy in Ukraine yielded a string of accords aimed at deepening economic and military ties between Ankara and Kyiv and thereby significantly raised the stakes for both sides should Russia attack the former Soviet state.

Russian land and naval forces remain massed around Ukraine as Western leaders scramble to find a diplomatic solution to defuse the crisis. Erdogan has offered to mediate between Russia and Ukraine and for good reason.

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