The free-trade agreement between Turkey and Ukraine is expected to come into effect within weeks and could change not only the two countries’ bilateral relationship but also their regional and global profiles.

The two sides negotiated the deal from 2007 to Feb. 3, 2022, when it was signed at a ceremony in Kyiv attended by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, exactly three weeks before Russia’s invasion. No new snags are likely and only a few technicalities remain before Ankara and Kyiv complete the ratification process. 

According to the Turkish Trade Ministry’s website, the agreement aims to remove customs from most industrial and agricultural goods traded between the two countries, and more importantly, to ensure that Turkey’s exports in textiles and garments, automobiles, kitchen appliances and fruits and vegetables are not unduly disadvantaged from Ukraine’s own free trade agreement with the EU.

Experts who spoke to Al-Monitor said that thanks to the new trade environment between the two countries, their mutual trade is expected to increase by 25% from the current $7.5 billion to $10 billion within a few years. Even amid the war, Turkish companies, mostly private ones, have become the largest investors in the Ukrainian economy since February 2022, a trend expected to accelerate once hostilities end.