Will high oil prices setback Gulf reforms?
Push harder or take a breath on economic reforms? The question can be tricky for Gulf rulers
Just a year after oil prices tumbled, the world’s top commodity traders predict that Brent crude could return to $100 a barrel for the first time since the 2014-2016 collapse in oil prices. The impulsive oil rally is a real bonanza for the Gulf petro-states that still rely heavily on oil exports to fund a large chunk of their annual budget — over 80% in Kuwait.
With oil breakeven prices needed to balance their budgets within reach, Gulf states can slack off the debt-raising spree they have embarked on to counterbalance low oil prices since 2014. Total annual debt issuance by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states will “average about $50 billion over 2021-2024,” S&P Global forecasted, compared to close to $100 billion in 2017.
Qatar expects a budget surplus and will tap the debt market only on an “opportunistic” basis.
However, the austerity push launched during the COVID-19 pandemic is still a hot topic of conversation for families in the Gulf as reforms start to weigh on the budget of households often accustomed to the government's largesse, tax-free high wages and generous subsidies.
