Libya is set to hold elections Dec. 24 in line with the provisions of the political road map approved by the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum in November. However, significant challenges remain that could prevent the holding of elections and derail the country’s political and institutional reunification — risking long-term entrenchment of foreign forces and mercenaries, further fragmentation and a return to conflict. 

Libya’s Higher National Elections Commissions set July 1 as a deadline for meeting all the constitutional and legal requirements for elections to be held by the end of the year. However, disagreements between key political stakeholders and institutions persist and pose a significant threat to the process.

In particular, the advisory Higher Council of State has outlined its position regarding the constitutional basis for elections by arguing in favor of a referendum on the draft constitution approved by the Constitution Drafting Committee in July 2017 in line with the Hurghada outcomes signed by representatives of the House of Representatives and the Higher Council of State on Jan. 19. Failing that, the council suggested the adoption of the Constitutional Drafting Committee’s draft constitution as a basis for new elections. This position reflects the view and interests of political Islamist groups who are the predominant faction inside the council. However, the House of Representatives, unlike the council, never ratified the Hurghada outcomes and House President Aguila Saleh has been publicly walking back on them. 

On May 5, Saleh informed the UN envoy to Libya, Jan Kubis, that the House of Representatives is ready to adopt the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum’s decision regarding an interim constitutional basis for elections. The forum’s legal committee already concluded its work on the issue and Kubis submitted the final draft to Saleh during their meeting May 4. In the event that the forum fails to produce an outcome, Saleh informed Kubis he would move ahead with elections based on the 7th constitutional amendment for presidential and parliamentary elections.